A volatile soybean market, plagued by climate change and anti-competitive practices, is threatening the affordability of poultry, a crucial protein source, across Zambia and Malawi. The crisis, economists warn, jeopardizes regional food security and undermines the livelihoods of small-scale poultry producers.
Soybeans, a key ingredient in chicken feed, directly influence poultry prices. In 2024, both Zambia and Malawi, major soybean producers in the region, experienced significant production declines due to adverse weather conditions. However, the resulting price surges, particularly in Malawi, far exceeded the actual drop in supply, raising serious concerns about market manipulation.
Economists from the African Market Observatory, who conducted extensive field research, attribute the price volatility to a combination of climate-related factors and competition issues. In Zambia, dominant buyers offered farmers drastically low prices in 2023, discouraging planting and leading to a 74% production slump in 2024. Malawi, despite a smaller production decline of 20% due to drought, witnessed soybean prices skyrocket, surpassing even Zambia’s.
“Our work shows that competition issues, such as the ability of large buyers to influence prices and high margins, are at the heart of the surge in prices and low production in Malawi and Zambia,” the Observatory’s report states.
The impact is particularly severe on small-scale, independent poultry producers, who rely on open market feed purchases. They are squeezed by escalating feed prices, while larger producers, with integrated operations, can dictate soybean prices.
The situation underscores the vulnerability of the region’s poultry value chain, a sector vital for food security. Poultry is one of the most affordable and environmentally sustainable protein sources, with demand in sub-Saharan Africa expected to quadruple by 2050.
“The experience of 2024 shows what can go wrong,” economists warn. “Producers will need affordable feed.”
Malawi’s soybean prices, which soared to nearly $900 per tonne in late 2024, despite export restrictions, point to a highly concentrated trading and processing market. Zambia, on the other hand, saw price moderation due to imports and surplus soymeal stocks.
The crisis highlights the urgent need for regional market monitoring and intervention to address anti-competitive conduct. While Zambia is conducting a national poultry market inquiry, a coordinated, cross-border approach is essential to safeguard the poultry industry and ensure affordable protein for the region’s growing population.
“Resilience to climate change impacts requires deepening and diversifying agriculture production across countries and regional trade to meet demand,” the report concludes, emphasizing the need for a more robust and equitable food system.
