Weather forecast have indicated that through March 2019, northern districts are likely to remain in Minimal, although Karonga and Mzimba districts are likely be in stressed, due to below normal production, depletion of household food stocks, and decrease income access.
Indications are that poor households in the central region will likely rely on market purchases for food owing to a poor season and Dowa, Karonga, Mchinji, Nkhotakota, Ntchisi, Lilongwe, and Kasungu districts will likely face stressed outcomes.
The Dedza, Ntcheu and Salima in the center region and districts in southern Malawi will likely face crisis outcomes as these districts depleted their food stocks in June in some areas and have been relying on market purchases and coping strategies.
Starting in late December or early January and continuing through April, humanitarian food assistance will be delivered monthly to the estimated three million throughout the country meeting about 70 percent of a household’s kcal needs for a month.
As a result of humanitarian food assistance, stressed and minimal outcomes are likely across the country through March.
However, based on nutrition data that is currently available, the GAM prevalence is anticipated to slightly increase through the lean season, however based on historical nutrition trends, the GAM prevalence is still expected to fall within ‘acceptable’ WHO thresholds.
As green foods become available in late March, poor households will reduce their reliance on market purchases and coping strategies and begin to rely on green foods and harvested crops.
Areas likely to experience the negative impacts of the El Nino conditions during the 2018/19 wet season will likely be slower to recover.
In the late April or May, household food insecurity outcomes will improve to minimal for most districts and stressed due to the significant increase in food availability of food from the harvest and most foods will access food from their own production.